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As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations.
Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how―even from the oil industry's first years―wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions―first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC―succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations―including mistakes to avoid―as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
- Sales Rank: #25000 in Books
- Published on: 2017-01-17
- Original language: English
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 6.25" w x 1.00" l, 1.00 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 336 pages
Review
Robert McNally has written an excellent biography of a world-famous character, known for volatility and violent mood swings, sometimes reviled but always a player in the world economy and politics―the oil price. Insightful and timely, Crude Volatility explores the clash over many decades between "boom and bust" prices and the efforts to harness them. In the current market, McNally explains why volatility is likely to win out over stability―highly significant for what will remain the world's most important commodity for many years to come.
(Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize and The Quest and Vice Chairman of IHS Markit)Pioneer's strong balance sheet and successful hedging program―before and since the latest price bust―depended largely on McNally's sound advice and his outstanding grasp of oil market dynamics and OPEC. This same expertise is on display in his lively book, which will help any reader understand the history of oil markets, and how we got to where we are today.
(Scott Sheffield, CEO, Pioneer Natural Resources)This is an important book. Bob McNally is the first to place shale oil in its proper historical context and explain the ramifications. His conclusions have profound implications for policymakers and the market. It would be unwise to venture out into this new and more volatile oil market without using McNally as your guide.
(Paul Horsnell, Global Head of Commodities at Standard Chartered)This completely fresh viewpoint from Robert McNally is a must read for anyone involved in the oil market. The historical perspective provided in Crude Volatility is critical to understanding the future of prices and the impact they will have on the geopolitical order in years to come. Buckle up for a wild ride!
(Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and the Robin Hood Foundation)Splendid... McNally is both a skillful historian and an astute analyst... for readers who do not have the time to tackle Daniel Yergin's 900-page standard-bearer, The Prize (1990), Crude Volatility is a concise alternative for understanding the grand narrative of oil.
(R. Tyler Priest Wall Street Journal) About the Author
Robert McNally is the founder and president of The Rapidan Group, a leading energy consulting firm, and a nonresident fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy. From 2001 to 2003, he served as the top international and domestic energy adviser on the White House staff.
Most helpful customer reviews
13 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
An excellent guide to the roller coaster that is the oil market
By Rollie Lal
This is an excellent overview of the oil market cycles. McNally goes through significant history and technical details about the petroleum industry while retaining what I would consider a journalistic style. He also is even handed when addressing various controversial theories such as 'peak oil', or the role of OPEC and the US shale industry in the most recent glut. In addition, his smooth and accessible writing style makes for an enjoyable read. He has studied the topic deeply. I was pleased to read his logical analysis of supply and demand, and how the lags in increasing and decreasing production inside the oil industry lead to the inevitable booms and busts that we have seen. The book was written with care, and the graphs and charts inside support the findings well. I recommend this book highly if you would like to understand what has happened in the oil market, why, and what it means for the market in the years to come.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Splendid and readable insight into a crucial market.
By Delta D.
A much-needed account of the history of oil price volatility. Anybody assuming that the oil market is driven by Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" is in for a rude awakening. Throughout its history, the oil market has been manipulated. The author makes a good case that such manipulation - resulting in relative price stability - is generally (although not always) a public welfare. The rise and fall of the various manipulating/stabilising protagonists over time is clearly delineated,as is the prospect for significantly reduced price stability in the period ahead. I had always assumed that shale oil would be a natural swing supply, but the author debunks that clinically. If I had to pick a complaint it is that the perspective is too much from the US point of view. The various forces in action in the other producer countries, especially Saudi Arabia, is skipped over a little bit. One big question in my mind is why, in a era of very low oil prices, would Saudi Arabia continue to produce at such high volume? The "bust" period is likely to be followed by "boom" and if the Saudis need immediate cash for their public expenditure, they can issue Shariah-compliant instruments, secured on the oil in the ground, on very favourable terms. But I have no hesitation in giving this 5 stars. It contains valuable insight in a very readable form.
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